{"id":4921,"date":"2022-09-15T16:29:48","date_gmt":"2022-09-15T16:29:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/atauk.org\/?p=4921"},"modified":"2022-09-19T20:35:03","modified_gmt":"2022-09-19T20:35:03","slug":"putin-fear-nato","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/atauk.org\/index.php\/2022\/09\/15\/putin-fear-nato\/","title":{"rendered":"What President Putin Really Fears About NATO"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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President Putin knows perfectly well that NATO poses no military threat to Russia. But it is not a military threat that he fears.<\/em><\/strong><\/h4>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Finland and Sweden\u2019s decisions to join NATO show just how severely President Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine has backfired.<\/span><\/p>

President Putin might well have stalled Ukraine\u2019s membership prospects, but these were long-term, even before the invasion. The invasion of Ukraine, however, led Finland and Sweden to abandon their traditional neutrality and place them on track to be full members of NATO in a matter of months.\u00a0 So instead of delaying further NATO enlargement, President Putin has actually accelerated it.<\/p>

But being on track for membership is not the same thing as being a member, and as soon as Finland and Sweden\u2019s aspirations became clear, concerns arose about how President Putin might react before they became full NATO members, covered by the full weight of NATO\u2019s \u201cArticle 5\u201d mutual defence commitment.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Consequently, Finland, Sweden and several NATO members announced a flurry of defence agreements and arrangements in the hope that these would deter a precipitous response from Russia.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Finland, Sweden, and NATO: President Putin’s muted response<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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There is no way of knowing what part these measures have played in in President Putin’s calculations, but\u00a0 – so far – his reaction has been unexpectedly measured, limited to sabre-rattling in the Baltic and dark warnings about new nuclear deployments in the region.<\/span><\/p>

In fact, addressing a summit of CSTO leaders in Moscow on 16 May, when there was no longer any doubt about Finland and Sweden’s forthcoming applications, President Putin said that there was no threat to Russia from Finland and Sweden joining NATO and that Russia\u2019s response would depend upon what NATO infrastructure was placed on their territories.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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President Putin said there was no threat to Russia from Finland and Sweden joining NATO…<\/h4><\/blockquote>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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He reiterated this on 28 June when it became clear that Finland and Sweden\u2019s applications would be accepted at NATO\u2019s Madrid Summit and that they would be invited to commence accession talks.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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RAF Typhoons training in Sweden in July 2022. (UK MoD\/Open Government Licence v3.0)<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Government leaders of Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan at the Summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in Moscow, 16 May 2022<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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True, the Kremlin issued statements about the raising of tensions and destabilising effect on security, but again, in a statement to Russian media<\/a>, President Putin said:<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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“With Sweden and Finland, we don’t have the problems that we have with Ukraine. They want to join NATO, go ahead. But they must understand there was no threat before, while now, if military contingents and infrastructure are deployed there, we will have to respond in kind and create the same threats for the territories from which threats towards us are created.”<\/span><\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Because there is no military threat<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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President Putin, however, well knows that NATO\u2019s presence in Finland and Sweden will be minimal. NATO has been scrupulously careful to ensure that its \u201cfootprint\u201d in new member nations could not be construed as a threat to Russia, despite the Putin regime\u2019s distorted and wildly exaggerated claims to the contrary.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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The simple fact is that the opening of NATO to new members poses no security threat to Russia, nor indeed any other nation.<\/p>

And President Putin understands that. Finland and Sweden\u2019s NATO applications offend his distorted interpretation of history and inflame his misplaced sense of grievance against the West, but he knows that he has nothing to fear from their eventual accession to NATO.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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The real fear: democratic values and good governance<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Yet he does fear Ukraine seeking membership of NATO. That fear, however, has little or nothing to do with military forces, but a great deal to do with how NATO and EU countries are governed.<\/span><\/p>

To qualify for membership of NATO \u2013 and the EU \u2013 a nation must subscribe to the Alliance\u2019s shared values – notably democracy, individual liberty, and the rule of law \u2013 and meet key political and economic standards and criteria. It is not just a nation’s armed forces which join NATO, but the entire nation. If a nation does not measure up on governance and values, it makes no difference how capable or otherwise its armed forces might be.<\/p>

Elections must be free and fair. Opposition figures and journalists must be able to do their jobs without fear of ending up in exile, in jail or even in a cemetery.<\/p>

The courts must be independent: citizens cannot be locked away at the whim of the ruling regime. The rights of minorities must be respected and there should be a market economy.<\/span><\/p>

The armed forces must not only be able to contribute to NATO operations, they must be under civilian control.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Elections must be free and fair. Opposition figures and journalists must be able to do their jobs without fear of ending up in exile, in jail or even in a cemetery.<\/h4><\/blockquote>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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All the countries that joined the Alliance after the end of the Cold War took years to make the transition from imposed communism to free democracy, but Finland and Sweden have no governance transition to make. Indeed, as exemplary members of the European Union, they already tick all the boxes.<\/span><\/p>

But while the governance of Finland and Sweden is of no concern or interest to President Putin, the governance of Ukraine matters a lot.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Ukraine’s 2014 Revolution of Dignity<\/em><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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He has seen any number of \u201cstrongman\u201d regimes toppled by popular uprisings, which he believes were fuelled by the West, but he was especially shaken by Ukraine\u2019s 2014 \u201cRevolution of Dignity\u201d which ejected then President Viktor Yanukovych. And the last thing that President Putin wants is for his own population is to learn about a well-run, democratic regime in Ukraine – a sharp contrast with his own corrupt kleptocracy.<\/span><\/p>

But despite President Putin\u2019s firm grip on information within Russia, communications between Russia and Ukraine have traditionally permeated through their extensive familial, personal, business, and cultural connections. The conflict with Ukraine and disinformation campaigns about its government are intended to stop the \u201cwrong\u201d message gaining traction within Russia\u2019s own population.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Democratic contagion<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Demonstrations in Kyiv during the Euromaidan “Revolution of Dignity” which ousted the Yanukovych regime in February 2014. (Euromaidan Kyiv 1-12-13 by Gnatoush 005.jpg CC By 2.0)<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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In other words, President Putin fears that democratic values and a desire for good governance might be contagious.<\/p>

President Putin therefore portrays Ukraine\u2019s government as failed, illegitimate, aggressive, and oppressive, and depicts western NGOs as spies and traitors controlled by the malign West.<\/p>

Quite simply, President Putin fears a stable, successful, democratic Ukraine as a direct threat to his regime.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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President Putin\u2019s is waging war on Ukraine because he fears that the seeds of democracy, liberty, and the rule of law will blow over from Ukraine and take root in Russia.<\/h4><\/blockquote>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
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He knows that NATO enlargement poses no security threat to Russia, or indeed anyone. President Putin\u2019s is waging war on Ukraine because he fears that the seeds of democracy, liberty, and the rule of law will blow over from Ukraine and take root in Russia.<\/span><\/p>

That means that he will be determined to keep his forces in at least parts of Donbas to maintain the fiction that the phoney \u201cbreakaway\u201d regimes in Luhansk and Donetsk need protection from Ukraine\u2019s government.<\/p>

And his hostility to Ukraine will endure for as long as there is a viable and independent Ukraine.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

President Putin knows perfectly well that NATO poses no military threat to Russia. But it is not a military threat that he fears. Finland and Sweden\u2019s decisions to join NATO show just how severely President Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine has backfired. President Putin might well have stalled Ukraine\u2019s membership prospects, but these were long-term, even […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4955,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[65,66,52,67,60],"ppma_author":[23],"class_list":["post-4921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ukraine","tag-democracy","tag-finland","tag-russia","tag-sweden","tag-ukraine"],"authors":[{"term_id":23,"user_id":2,"is_guest":0,"slug":"david","display_name":"David Hobbs","avatar_url":"https:\/\/atauk.org\/wp-content\/litespeed\/avatar\/f56c47d2d70950af82ff4169662fcce1.jpg?ver=1775848783","author_category":"","user_url":"","last_name":"Hobbs","first_name":"David","job_title":"","description":""}],"rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/atauk.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/220828-Verkhovna-Rada1.jpg",512,342,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/atauk.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/220828-Verkhovna-Rada1.jpg",512,342,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/atauk.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/220828-Verkhovna-Rada1.jpg",512,342,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/atauk.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/220828-Verkhovna-Rada1-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/atauk.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/220828-Verkhovna-Rada1-300x200.jpg",300,200,true],"large":["https:\/\/atauk.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/220828-Verkhovna-Rada1.jpg",512,342,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/atauk.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/220828-Verkhovna-Rada1.jpg",512,342,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/atauk.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/220828-Verkhovna-Rada1.jpg",512,342,false],"xs-thumb":["https:\/\/atauk.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/220828-Verkhovna-Rada1-64x64.jpg",64,64,true]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"David Hobbs","author_link":"https:\/\/atauk.org\/index.php\/author\/david\/"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"Ukraine<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"President Putin knows perfectly well that NATO poses no military threat to Russia. But it is not a military threat that he fears. Finland and Sweden\u2019s decisions to join NATO show just how severely President Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine has backfired. President Putin might well have stalled Ukraine\u2019s membership prospects, but these were long-term, even…","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/atauk.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4921","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/atauk.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/atauk.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atauk.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atauk.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4921"}],"version-history":[{"count":82,"href":"https:\/\/atauk.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4921\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5430,"href":"https:\/\/atauk.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4921\/revisions\/5430"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atauk.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4955"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/atauk.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4921"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atauk.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4921"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atauk.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4921"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/atauk.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=4921"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}