1 August 2021

As international forces leave Afghanistan, what does the future hold for this troubled state that has endured decades of internal conflict?

This paper provides the perspectives of two analysts in neighbouring Pakistan who explore the imminent challenges to Afghanistan’s peace and stability. Written before face-to-face talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban, its insights into the fragile security situation remain wholly relevant.

In the authors’ view, the end of conflict in Afghanistan can end either of two ways: convening a People’s Grand Assembly to formulate a plan for a transitional, all-inclusive government, or a Taliban march on Kabul resulting in still further bloodshed and the establishment of a Taliban emirate.