Limiting Putin’s Escalation Options

After Ukraine’s advances in the Kharkiv region in mid-September, what once seemed a remote prospect – the operational defeat of Russia’s forces in Ukraine – is looking increasingly plausible. But President Putin will seek to avoid that through escalation. But he is not holding all the cards; Ukraine and its supporters can take steps to …

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What President Putin Really Fears About NATO

President Putin knows perfectly well that NATO poses no military threat to Russia. But it is not a military threat that he fears. Finland and Sweden’s decisions to join NATO show just how severely President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has backfired. President Putin might well have stalled Ukraine’s membership prospects, but these were long-term, even …

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Russian Guarantees to Ukraine

Russia tries to ignore that Russia itself – as well as the United Kingdom and the United States – signed an agreement to respect Ukraine’s borders, not threaten or use force against Ukraine, and refrain from using economic coercion against Ukraine.