After Ukraine’s advances in the Kharkiv region in mid-September, what once seemed a remote prospect – the operational defeat of Russia’s forces in Ukraine – is looking increasingly plausible. But President Putin will seek to avoid that through escalation. But he is not holding all the cards; Ukraine and its supporters can take steps to […]
Limiting Putin’s Escalation Options Read More »
President Putin knows perfectly well that NATO poses no military threat to Russia. But it is not a military threat that he fears. Finland and Sweden’s decisions to join NATO show just how severely President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has backfired. President Putin might well have stalled Ukraine’s membership prospects, but these were long-term, even
What President Putin Really Fears About NATO Read More »
Having painted himself into a corner and with wounded pride, what will a detached and deluded President Putin do when Finland and Sweden apply to join NATO?
Finland and Sweden: navigating the rocky road to NATO membership Read More »
There is every reason to condemn President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, but don’t inadvertently play into his own twisted narrative.
Arm Ukraine, but don’t fuel President Putin’s propaganda machine Read More »
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marks the beginning of the end for the Putin regime. It also marks the end of the beginning of a new era in geo-strategy and how the world’s democracies respond to threats from aggressive autocracies. For President Putin, all the plausible outcomes in Ukraine leave him in trouble. Even if Russian
Putin’s Decline and a New Strategic Era Read More »
Hybrid threats have become a fact of life that nations must learn to recognize and attempt to counter. On 11 February 2022, less than two weeks before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, ATA UK held a webinar with Oleksandr Danylyuk on detecting and countering hybrid threats. With inside experience in Ukraine’s defence, security, and
Detecting and Countering Hybrid Threats Read More »
Russia tries to ignore that Russia itself – as well as the United Kingdom and the United States – signed an agreement to respect Ukraine’s borders, not threaten or use force against Ukraine, and refrain from using economic coercion against Ukraine.
Russian Guarantees to Ukraine Read More »